Roundtable: 2010 Sleepers

This year's final roundtable question:

Which pitcher and hitter are your top sleepers for 2010?

Check out our answers at Fantasy Phenoms.  Who are your picks?

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Roundtable: Quitting

I'm hosting the roundtable question this week; here it is:

Have you ever quit on a fantasy team of yours?  If so, what were the circumstances?  If not, how were you able to maintain your motivation even after you had no chance?

Derek Carty, The Hardball Times Fantasy:

Unfortunately, yes, I have (sort of)... this year, actually.  I don't say unfortunately in that I'm ashamed of it, but rather about the circumstances that led up to it.  In one of the expert leagues I'm playing in this year, I worked out a trade mid-season of my Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, A.J. Burnett, and Mike Napoli for Roy Halladay and Miguel Cabrera.  While the league rules stated that a trade could be vetoed by a 40% vote (a rule I was never a fan of to begin with but which had never actually been needed, to the best of my knowledge), the league's commissioner decided to unilaterally veto my trade.

No explanation was given, and the message about the veto said that the site's "system" had rejected it.  I only found out from another league member that it was the commissioner who did it.  He didn't respond to any of my e-mails politely asking for an explanation, even one in which I CCed everyone in the league.  I kept playing a little longer after this, trying to find more trades and I eventually made one more, but the league had an early trade deadline (in July),  I couldn't even get a hold of a couple teams to talk, and I didn't have enough time to work out all the trades I needed (and a couple of trades I was planning for were contingent upon the initial deal going through).

Needless to say, I'm not a big fan of vetoes in general (I'm actually completely against them), but when there is a rule explicitly against unilateral vetoes and one occurs, that's a tad ridiculous.  And that ignores the fact that this is an expert's league.  Aren't we supposed to know what we're doing, and isn't it possible that one of us knows something the rest don't, leading to the decision to make a particular trade?  We're supposed to be the learned minority, processing our thoughts and making decisions independently of conventional wisdom, and independently of each other, for that matter.  And as experts, aren't we also supposed to understand that no one knows what the future holds and that vetoing trades based on the subjective judgment of one person is a bit ridiculous?  If two experts feel that a trade will benefit their teams, shouldn't that be enough?  Why does an arbitrary third member of the league get to decide if it does?  I've never heard of an experts league that allows vetoes, much less one that exercises the rule on a trade in which I still can't figure out how the commissioner viewed it (i.e. which side was getting the better end?).

So yeah, I did quit on a league this year, though I really wish I didn't have to.  I had a real shot at winning (I believe I in first or second at the time of the vetoed trade).  I do occasionally make roster adjustments, because I feel bad about leaving my team completely abandoned, and I've considered streaming players this month, but I have a hard time bringing myself to do it and legitimizing the whole thing.

Patrick Cain, Times Union:

Yea I've quit teams. This year in fact I stopped paying attention to two teams. One was the Razzball inverse league. That is good players are bad, bad ones are good. Well, I missed the draft and ended up with a team that looked like Pujols, Hanley, Arod, Lincecum etc. Lame. The second I was the commissioner. Huge injuries and an awful draft left me with no chance. I kept doing all the commish duties, but it sucked.

Jon Williams, Advanced Fantasy Baseball:

As Bill Clinton might say, I guess it depends on your definition. I have decided that there was nothing more I could do at certain points and just gone through the motions of replacing injured guys and bidding on free agents where that has been possible. But I don't call that quitting so much as realizing that not even a miracle could save me now. But that doesn't happen too often.

I have also been in leagues where the interest of other owners has not lasted through the season. This makes it especially tough to keep going. Trying to get back into a money spot when trades are impossible can be demoralizing. But even in a league like this I think it is important to do your duty of replacing injured players and keeping a legal lineup.

One of best ways of motivating yourself is setting a goal other than actually winning. Goals such as not finishing last, passing a particular team in the standings, winning certain categories, and gaining a certain number of points can really help you to keep making an effort. You may even shock yourself by returning to contention.

Mike Podhorzer, FantasyPros911:

In terms of private leagues in which I paid an entry fee, I cannot say I actually have ever quit on a fantasy team I owned. However, by the last month of the season, if I know I have no chance at the money, I will usually pay a lot less attention and simply set my lineup, taking care of injury replacements as necessary. I would not considering that quitting, but it is certainly putting in less effort than I opened the season with. Except for maybe avoiding finishing in last, which I have never come close to, I don't care too much to try finishing the highest I can for pride purposes. To me, 9th place is the same as 4th place. Heck, if I don't win, I consider it a lost season.
 
I think the only time I would ever truly quit is if it was a league I had just joined and it was poorly run, had awful rules and I ended up having no chance at finishing in the money. I probably would feel no regrets completely giving up and just never checking the league site the rest of the season.

Tim Dierkes, RotoAuthority:

Similar to what Mike said, there have been leagues where I've put in less effort during the final month.  Just for pride's sake, I'll always set the lineup, make DL decisions, and replace useless players.  But if I have no shot at the title it's hard to put intense daily research into it.

With the RotoAuthority league, I kick out the bottom four teams each year.  Finishing in the bottom four was not a concern for me; I won the league the first two years.  This year, however, I haven't been much of a contender at any point.  The indignity of possibly finishing in the bottom four was definitely enough to keep me going throughout the year.  I clawed my way up to 6th place and have an outside shot at 4th.

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Roundtable: Ubaldo Jimenez

This week's roundtable question, courtesy of Patrick DiCaprio:

"I predict that Ubaldo Jimenez will be a top seven fantasy pitcher in 2010. Will I be right?"

Check out Fantasy Pros 911 to read our answers.  What do you think?

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Gregg Removed From Closer Role

Cubs manager Lou Piniella announced early this morning that he plans to make late innings changes, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  Kevin Gregg's West Coast implosion is the perfect fantasy opportunity - it's time to add Carlos Marmol, Angel Guzman, or both if you can.

The Cubs have tried to maintain Marmol as the setup man all year long, despite a maddening 52 walks in 56.3 innings.  Guzman has far better control, though his strikeout rate has been mediocre in recent months.  Here's how I see it: Piniella will probably soon announce an inclination toward Marmol, even though Guzman makes more sense.  This may not be a fantasy dilemma for you, as Marmol is already owned in many leagues.  So just add Guzman and see what happens.

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The Worst Closers In Baseball

The trade deadline came and went with only one closer, George Sherrill, losing his job.  Which was a shame, since Sherrill was having a fine year pitching the ninth for Baltimore.  Aside from injuries, those looking to vulture saves for the remaining 30% of the season have to hope a closer loses his job due to ineffectiveness.  With that in mind, let's look at some flawed stoppers.  The sample for this post includes the 30 active closers, with both Frank Francisco and C.J. Wilson representing Texas and Jason Frasor and the injured Scott Downs repping Toronto.

Worst ERA

1. Brad Lidge - 7.29
2. Matt Capps - 5.97
3. Kerry Wood - 4.73
4. Brian Fuentes - 4.23
5. Bobby Jenks - 4.03

Worst WHIP

1. Brad Lidge - 1.76
2. Matt Capps - 1.75
3. Mike MacDougal - 1.52
4. Kerry Wood - 1.38
5. Francisco Rodriguez - 1.34

Most Hittable (Hits Per Nine Innings)

1. Matt Capps - 12.19
2. Brad Lidge - 10.50
3. Chad Qualls - 9.45
4. Bobby Jenks - 9.00
5. Scott Downs - 8.65

Worst Control (Walks Per Nine Innings)

1. Mike MacDougal - 6.04
2. Francisco Rodriguez - 5.40
3. Brad Lidge - 5.36
4. David Aardsma - 5.09
5. Fernando Rodney - 4.41

Lowest Strikeout Rate

1. Mike MacDougal - 4.13
2. Ryan Franklin - 6.34
3. Jim Johnson - 6.36
4. Francisco Cordero - 7.35
5. Trevor Hoffman - 7.36

Highest HR Rate

1. Brad Lidge - 2.14
2. Matt Capps - 1.91
3. Kevin Gregg - 1.84
4. Kerry Wood - 1.58
5. Leo Nunez - 1.39

Worst Save Percentage (Excluding those who spent time in setup roles)

1. Brad Lidge - 75.0%
2. Kerry Wood - 75.0%
3. Jose Valverde - 78.9%
4. Kevin Gregg - 81.5%
5. Francisco Rodriguez - 82.8%

• Lidge has been brutal, but he was lights-out last year and he's earning $11.5MM.  Should his knee issues surface again, Ryan Madson would get a look.
• MacDougal, with his 0.68 K/BB ratio, somehow has a 2.54 ERA and is 11 of 12 in save opportunities.  Proving once again that almost any reliever is capable of piling up some saves.  We heard Jim Riggleman would try a committee with MacDougal, Beimel (who has since been dealt to Colorado), and perhaps Sean Burnett, but it never really happened.  Should MacDougal's smoke and mirrors approach stop working, perhaps Ron Villone and Jason Bergmann would be considered the team's current setup guys?  Tyler Clippard has a big strikeout rate despite a 90 mph heater.
• If the Pirates want to give Capps a break, they could try "closer of the future" Joel Hanrahan.  Capps is the victim of a .384 BABIP and 17.6% HR per flyball rate.
• As for August trades, we can't rule out waiver claims on pricey guys like Wood and Cordero (however unlikely).  I'm thinking Chris Perez and Nick Masset for backup closers on the Ohio teams.

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Has Luke Hochevar Figured It Out?

It's been an up-and-down season for 25 year-old Royals pitcher and former #1 draft pick Luke Hochevar.  He lost the team's fifth starter battle out of spring training to Sidney Ponson, of all people.  He was very good in eight Triple A starts, posting a 1.50 ERA and quality peripherals outside of a less impressive 6.8 K/9.  Hochevar posted a strong groundball rate in the minors, in keeping with his 51.8% mark in the Majors in '08.

Many fantasy leaguers targeted Hochevar when he inevitably replaced Ponson for a May 12th start against a weak-hitting Oakland club.  The A's, of course, annihilated Hochevar.  After another demotion and call-up he seemed to have things going in early June, shutting out the Reds mid-month.  Those who picked him up at that juncture saw him get bombed by the D'Backs in his next start.  The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hochevar trend continued in July, with a 22 K/0 BB two-start run followed by another stinker.

So here we are.  Through it all, Hochevar has nice peripherals with a 6.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.  HRs and hits have been a problem, with these underlying stats: a 16.7% HR/flyball rate and .294 BABIP.  The BABIP is fortunate, given the Royals .326 mark.  As for the 14 HR allowed in 88.6 innings, that rate figures to come down.  Hochevar's 4.44 xFIP seems appropriate, as compared to his 5.38 ERA. 

More information to muddy the picture: Hochevar is "tinkering with a split-finger fastball," according to Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star.  The split could potentially replace his changeup as he refines it.  I am also intrigued by that 13 K, 0 BB effort against the Rangers, as was Joe Posnanski.  I think Hochevar is worth a mixed league pickup, and I wouldn't worry about playing the matchups (he's due to get the Tigers, Twins, and Indians next I believe).  Just throw him out there - aside from Jonathan Sanchez, he might be your best bet for Ks on the waiver wire.

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Newfound Control

Let's take a look at the starting pitchers who have improved their control the most in 2009.  The number represents the reduction in the pitcher's walk rate from '08 to '09.

1. Barry Zito - 1.62
2. Justin Verlander - 1.30
3. Joel Pineiro - 1.21
4. Ubaldo Jimenez - 1.14
5. Tim Lincecum - 1.02
6. Ted Lilly - 0.91
7. Jason Marquis - 0.90
8. John Lannan - 0.90
9. Edwin Jackson - 0.87
10. Felix Hernandez - 0.80
11. Javier Vazquez - 0.79
12. Jarrod Washburn - 0.69
13. Zack Greinke - 0.63
14. Kevin Correia - 0.57
15. Jorge de la Rosa - 0.55
16. Matt Cain - 0.51
17. Johnny Cueto - 0.43
18. Scott Feldman - 0.39
19. Dan Haren - 0.38
20. Mark Buehrle - 0.37

Aside from Buehrle, every pitcher on this Top 20 list reduced his ERA as well.  So the question is: how can we detect these improvements early and pounce on those who improve their control in 2010?  The pitcher's April walk rate improvement could be a sign, as it was with Zito, Verlander, Lannan, Cueto, Jackson, and others on this list.  But it didn't play out for others like de la Rosa, Marquis, and Feldman, so consider this just a theory.  Besides, some of these pitchers were never waiver bait, so they'd have to have been draft day pickups.

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Mailbag Questions?

Hit me up at rotoauthority@gmail.com with your questions for the mailbag or ideas for topics to cover on the site.  We'll probably resume with a more regular posting schedule come September, but there will be content in the meantime.

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Closer Replacements

It's officially time to add Mike Adams in your league for saves in San Diego.  Jim Johnson for the Orioles, too.  (UPDATE: Heath Bell, of course, stayed put as the Padres' closer).

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BABIP, Anyone?

Been a while since we checked in our BABIP leaders and trailers.  Minimum 75 IP.

Those benefitting from low BABIPs should see their WHIPs rise:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Scott Feldman	0.236	1.56	0.136	3.59	1.14
Dan Haren	0.240	7.42	0.121	2.14	0.84
Scott Richmond	0.246	2.37	0.211	3.69	1.20
Jarrod Washburn	0.247	2.60	0.116	2.71	1.06
Edwin Jackson	0.249	2.36	0.143	2.59	1.11
Chris Carpenter	0.255	4.75	0.098	2.26	0.91
Shairon Martis	0.256	0.87	0.178	5.25	1.42
Randy Wolf	0.257	2.71	0.169	3.45	1.13
Yovani Gallardo	0.259	2.16	0.149	3.09	1.25
Chris Young	0.260	1.25	0.189	5.21	1.45
Jeff Karstens	0.260	1.03	0.189	4.40	1.36
J.A. Happ	0.261	2.15	0.140	2.97	1.18
Mark Buehrle	0.262	2.92	0.164	3.28	1.10
Trevor Cahill	0.262	1.09	0.223	4.50	1.45
Matt Garza	0.263	2.32	0.134	3.68	1.20
Kevin Millwood	0.268	1.87	0.156	3.39	1.28
Jair Jurrjens	0.268	1.87	0.121	2.67	1.20
Clayton Kershaw	0.269	1.75	0.090	2.96	1.26
Jered Weaver	0.269	2.73	0.157	3.57	1.18

It's time to sell high on Feldman, who has a 4.80 xFIP.  Happ is another player to shop, especially given the possibility he lands in the AL East as part of a Roy Halladay trade.

Here are the buying opportunities, guys who should see their WHIPs come down:

NAME	BABIP	K/BB	ISO	ERA	WHIP
Todd Wellemeyer	0.360	1.45	0.177	5.79	1.75
Kevin Slowey	0.355	5.00	0.194	4.86	1.41
Manny Parra	0.354	1.48	0.172	6.42	1.80
Ricky Nolasco	0.344	4.04	0.192	5.42	1.36
Aaron Harang	0.344	3.67	0.180	4.25	1.43
Jordan Zimmermann	0.343	3.17	0.157	4.63	1.36
Jason Hammel	0.342	2.80	0.156	4.28	1.45
Carl Pavano	0.339	3.68	0.177	5.48	1.40
Livan Hernandez	0.335	1.54	0.162	4.87	1.53
Jon Lester	0.335	3.56	0.130	3.79	1.29
Cole Hamels	0.335	4.57	0.195	4.66	1.33

Sorry to say, there's not much here.  Favorites of mine like Zimmermann and Slowey are on the shelf.  Parra, Hammel, and Pavano are mildly interesting.  Check the price on Harang.

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First Round Busts

Every year brings a handful of first-round busts.  Let's see who qualifies this year.

• Some will argue for David Wright's inclusion, since he only has 5 HR currently.  Since Wright's been an asset in the other four categories, he's not a bust.  Similar story for Ian Kinsler, who's hitting .248 but doing well otherwise.
• Jose Reyes tallied just 166 plate appearances this year.  He's sidelined with a strained hamstring with no end in sight.  And once he comes back, will he steal bases like the Reyes of old?  Hanley Ramirez put some serious distance between himself, Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins this year.
• Grady Sizemore has this fantasy line: .234-13-49-44-9 in 334 plate appearances (7 times caught stealing).  He spent time on the DL with elbow pain and will require surgery after the season.  He seems to be back on track this month, and should still amass solid value.
• Rollins has been disappointing - .238-8-37-56-16 in 407 PAs.  Since he's still flirting with a 100 run, 30 SB pace, he's not a total bust. 
• Josh Hamilton has a fantasy line of .243-7-28-25-5 in 189 PAs.  He missed a bunch of time with surgery for a torn abdomen.  Like several others on this list, he still has time to make up ground.
• Reyes and Hamilton, due to injury, stand as the biggest first-round busts of 2009.  Has your team been able to withstand a first-round bust?

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What Happens If Chad Qualls Is Traded?

We touched on the topic of a possible Chad Qualls trade in our last post, but that was just my speculation.  Diamondbacks beat writer Nick Piecoro, writing for the Arizona Republic, finds the team unlikely to move their closer.  However, he's heard "nearly half of baseball" has inquired.  I asked Piecoro a few more questions about the situation, to determine the best course of action for fantasy owners.

RotoAuthority: If the D'Backs trade Qualls, who do you see stepping in as closer?  Is Jon Rauch the favorite?  What would be the pecking order?

Piecoro: With Tony Pena gone, Rauch would be Qualls’ successor as the closer. There’s really no one else in the bullpen with experience in the ninth inning. I guess if Tom Gordon gets back from his rehab and has some solid outings, he could work himself into the picture. But that’s a ways away.

RotoAuthority: Daniel Schlereth is currently on the DL in Double A with a strained rib cage muscle.  Once healthy, do you see him as a candidate for saves with the big club this year?

Piecoro: No, I don’t really see Schlereth as a candidate this year. Maybe somewhere down the road, but he hasn’t really refined his fastball command enough yet to the point where I would see them trusting him in the ninth. He has the weapons to do the job – his curveball is a swing-and-miss pitch to lefties and righties – but at this point he doesn’t throw enough strikes.

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Closer Trade Candidates

Of course, there is only one place to catch all the latest trade chatter: MLB Trade Rumors!  But today let's focus on closers who could be dealt, for those on the lookout for saves in fantasy leagues.

• It's been said the Angels have an eye on Blue Jays closer Scott Downs.  In the unlikely event they pry him loose, Jason Frasor would presumably take over in Toronto.
• Orioles closer George Sherrill is a popular trade target.  Most of the interested parties would probably bump him from a closer role.  Former closer Chris Ray is returning from biceps tendinitis and seems a long shot; I'd snag Jim Johnson instead.
• The Indians would listen on Kerry Wood.  Maybe Rafael Betancourt would step in if he's not dealt.  Chris Perez could be a dark horse. Maybe Betancourt gets the righties, Aaron Laffey the lefties.
• The Pirates might consider a deal for Matt Capps, but they'd probably have to be bowled over.  If he goes, John Grabow probably stays and closes (though I imagine the team would like to see Joel Hanrahan step up).
• Arizona closer Chad Qualls has been scouted by the Phillies and other clubs.  The team's previous trade of Tony Pena seems to clear the way for Jon Rauch, who's been better lately and did rack up saves last summer for the Nationals.  You won't find Rauch owned in many mixed leagues.
• The Padres are not looking to trade Heath Bell.  If Kevin Towers changes his mind, Edward Mujica could be thrown into the fire.
• Future free agents Huston Street and Jose Valverde previously seemed like trade candidates, but the Rockies are leading the wild card and the Astros are only three games back in their division.
• Bottom line: grab Jim Johnson and Jon Rauch, and then think about some of these other guys if you have the roster space.  Did I miss anyone?

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Mat Latos To Debut Sunday?

Top Padres pitching prospect Mat Latos is likely to get the call this Sunday, according to MLB.com's Corey Brock.  Fantasy implications?

First, the details on the 21 year-old righty.  He dominated at Low A last year and early this year, and then handled the jump to Double A with aplomb (a 1.91 ERA in nine starts there).  Peripherals were excellent across the board, especially his pinpoint control.  Now Latos will try to skip another level by entering the Padres rotation, possibly Sunday at home against Colorado.

Baseball America questioned the kid's maturity and health, but praised his raw stuff as "ridiculously good."  Excellent fastball and slider, decent changeup.  BA really worries about his attitude, and had him pegged for just Double A this year.

Another factor to consider is that Padres GM Kevin Towers suggested in the above-linked article that Latos will be shut down after about 55 more innings.  So you're probably getting 10-11 starts.

I see the kid is not yet listed in Yahoo leagues.  Based on his numbers, scouting report, and home park, I'd pounce when he does appear.  We often see young players struggle with control, but that might not be an issue with Latos.

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Pitcher Abuse Points

Which starting pitchers are being ridden like rented mules?  Let's check out the Baseball Prospectus stat Pitcher Abuse Points Per Start (minimum 75 IP).

1. Roy Halladay
2. Justin Verlander - 10 starts in the 110-121 pitch range, and two more beyond that.  In his career, Verlander is yet to have an impressive second half.
3. Gil Meche
4. Kevin Millwood - Big contract incentive for Millwood to pitch 50 more innings this year.
5. Edwin Jackson - Another notch in Jim Leyland's belt, this time with a 25 year-old.  Jackson's pro innings high was 183.3 last year with the Rays; if he makes 32 starts he could top 210.  Even if his arm does hold up, you almost have to consider selling high simply because you know he probably won't repeat his 2.52 first-half ERA.
6. Adam Wainwright
7. Ubaldo Jimenez
8. C.C. Sabathia
9. Chad Billingsley
10. Ian Snell
11. Cliff Lee
12. Kyle Davies
13. Yovani Gallardo
14. Tim Lincecum
15. Josh Beckett
16. Barry Zito
17. Wandy Rodriguez
18. A.J. Burnett
19. Livan Hernandez
20. Aaron Harang

Which pitchers do you see breaking down in the second half?

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